5 data-driven strategies to maximize revenue this shopping season

The 2025 shopping season is shaping up to be the most unforgiving in years. Declines are up, disputes are spiking, and consumers are more selective than ever. For subscription-based businesses, the stakes have never been higher.

So what can you do about it? Much more than you think. Butter routinely reviews market-level data to glean actionable insights for subscriptions and payments leaders. Most recently, we reviewed industry-wide payments data for 2025 to detail what merchants can expect during the upcoming shopping season and offer strategies to drive growth.

If you want to succeed during Cyber Week and beyond, here’s your guide.

1. The holiday season crushes auth rates—protect yourself

Over the past two years, we’ve seen payment-related risk engines become more stringent to combat a rise in fraud. This is reflected in a 2% decline in top-of-funnel authorization rates in H1 2025 versus H1 2024, which amounts to hundreds of millions in revenue being at-risk. 

Our data also shows that top-of-funnel performance degrades even more during the holiday shopping season, as risk engines further increase security in response to a spike in shopping and fraud activity.

All this to say that the holiday season offers enticing growth opportunities but also carries a profound risk of losing new, quality subscribers to payment friction. To ensure your initiatives don't fall flat, one of your main priorities should be to reduce declines. Otherwise, you’re just leaving revenue on the table.

The best way to de-risk top-of-funnel authorization is to partner with an AI-powered recovery solution that automatically retries declines based on historical payments data. Providers that offer a turnkey integration with your payment service provider and subscription management solution can be in place in just a few short weeks.

Selecting a recovery solution can be challenging. That’s why we put together two resources to make it easier on you: an evaluation guide and a comparison scorecard. Our evaluation guide walks you through questions to ask a potential provider. Our scorecard is an interactive tool that lets you quickly compare solutions you’re considering.

If you’re a Butter customer, we recommend implementing our complimentary Dynamic Dunning feature, which optimizes dunning lengths based on subscription plan, payment behavior, and business objectives to maximize revenue recovery. This gives you end-to-end payment recovery coverage that boosts top-of-funnel authorizations and prevents your new subscribers from accidentally churning down the line.

Did you know? The net capture rate across all subscription industries dropped by 10% from January to August 2025.

2. Retail brands have the most to lose this season

While the entire subscription market faces headwinds, retail brands are poised to suffer the most this season unless they optimize their payments. There are three interlocking reasons why: 

  • Tighter wallets: Rising prices, spurred on by inflation, have caused consumers to scale back on discretionary and semi-discretionary products, meaning there will be fewer opportunities for retail brands to acquire subscribers.
  • Lower margins: Brands that sell physical products typically have lower margins than businesses that sell non-physical products. To make up for their razor-thin profits, low-margin brands strive for high volume and high retention to ensure they cover the cost of customer acquisition. However, already mentioned, there will be fewer shoppers this season to drive volume, making each one all the more valuable.
  • Flagging payment performance: Retail experienced the sharpest deterioration in payments performance in H1 2025 among the industries we track. The sector’s authorization rates fell by 18% and disputes surged by an alarming 14% compared to the same period in 2024. The cause of this striking downturn is a combination of increased online shopping, more cautious risk engines, fraud-related activities, and banking institutions making it easier to dispute charges. 

In other words, fewer shoppers will purchase retail subscriptions during the shopping season, making every acquisition opportunity critical to growth. Boosting authorization and reducing disputes through payments optimization is your best strategy to succeed.

Here are our recommendations to protect yourself during peak shopping events: 

How to boost authorizations

  • Collect more data: The more information you share with issuing banks, the more likely the transaction will be authorized. We recommend you collect the shopper's full name, billing address, shipping address, card number, CVV or CVC, postal code, and the card's expiration date.
  • Use multiple PSPs: Success rates aren’t static between multiple payment service providers (PSPs). With multiple PSPs, you can route transactions to the one with the best performance rate based on historical payments data. In fact, merchants that use multiple PSPs outperform single-PSP setups; they have a 9% higher authorization rate, 7% higher capture rate, and 50% less lost volume. If you want to implement multiple PSPs, we recommend partnering with GR4VY.
  • Ditch pre-paid cards: Prepaid cards will run out of funds eventually, causing insufficient funds declines. While they are good for overall business, they shouldn’t be used to purchase a subscription.

How to reduce disputes 

  • To thwart chargebacks, partner with a prevention solution. For example, Butter offers Verifi’s Rapid Dispute Resolution (RDR). You should also confirm orders and place your refund, return, and cancellation policies front and center.

Did you know?

Merchants serving the pet industry only recover 36% of their subscribers after a payment failure.

Did you know? Merchants that use multiple PSPs have a 9% higher authorization rate than those that use a single-PSP setup.

3. Shoppers want more flexibility—give it to them

Shoppers prefer a monthly subscription over an annual commitment. Our analysis showed that the share of monthly subscriptions compared to all other subscription types jumped 18% in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024.

This trend is a direct response to two factors: subscription fatigue and economic uncertainty, leading subscribers to prioritize financial flexibility.

The good news is that this shift in consumer behavior presents not just a challenge, but a strategic opportunity. Understanding why consumers prefer monthly subscriptions allows you to adapt your offerings and stay ahead of the curve.

Here’s how you can leverage this trend to your advantage:

  • Optimize your monthly plans: Make your monthly subscription the path of least resistance. Ensure it is attractively priced and clearly presented as a flexible, low-risk option for new customers. If you default to an annual plan on your product display page, switch to monthly.
  • Emphasize flexibility in marketing: Frame your monthly plans as a key benefit. Use language that highlights the freedom to pause, cancel, or change the subscription at any time, which directly addresses the consumer's need for control.
  • Create an upsell path to annual: Use the monthly subscription as a gateway. Once a customer has experienced the value of your product and established a pattern of use, you can introduce a compelling offer to upgrade to an annual plan. This could be a significant discount or an exclusive bonus, presented as a smart way to save money in the long run.

Did you know?

Merchants serving the pet industry only recover 36% of their subscribers after a payment failure.

Did you know? The top-of-funnel conversion rate for monthly subscriptions is 37% higher than for non-monthly plans.

4. Consumers prefer credit cards (and so should you)

In H1 2025, credit card usage skyrocketed by 7% compared to the same time last year, while debit card usage dropped by 6% and prepaid cards slipped by 2%.

What’s driving this trend? Credit cards are seen as more convenient and safer than other payment methods. Consumers are also using them as a financial safety net to stretch their purchasing power and navigate tighter budgets. 

In the long run, this trend is not just a shift in consumer behavior but a potential boon for subscription brands. Transactions made with credit are more likely to be successful, meaning that this shift will drive more recurring revenue and a brighter future for your business.

You can take advantage of the trend—either this holiday season or in the New Year—by optimizing your payments flow to steer subscribers toward using their credit cards. Do this by offering rewards like discounts and by updating marketing copy to state that you recommend credit cards.

Did you know?

Merchants serving the pet industry only recover 36% of their subscribers after a payment failure.

Did you know? Credit card usage among subscription companies increased by 7% in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024.

5. Pushing bundles and add-ons comes with a price

Understandably, subscription brands want to push bundling and add-ons to boost average order value (AOV). However, doing so increases the likelihood of a decline due to “insufficient funds,” which is the most common cause of failed payments.

Heading into the holiday season, it’s critical that you weigh the cost and benefit of pushing a higher cart value. You might be boosting AOV while unintentionally lowering your recurring revenue potential. We can’t tell you if it’s the right call for your business, but the conversation is a strategic necessity.

If you elect to pursue larger carts, make sure to protect yourself by implementing staged billing. This is when add-ons are billed separately from the core subscription, thus reducing the initial transaction amount. We also recommend focusing your efforts on maintaining the subscription over the add-on if a decline occurs.

Final thoughts

The challenges subscription brands face this season are significant. Economic turmoil threatens to derail what is typically a flush time of year. That’s why you must implement strategies to squeeze the most value out of the opportunities you do receive. Start by partnering with a recovery solution to boost first-time authorization and lean into consumer preferences by incentivizing monthly subscriptions and credit card usage. Finally, consider how your sales strategies impact payments and whether a short-term gain is worth long-term subscription revenue.

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